While a large portion of the NFL world comes to grips with John Harbaugh, Mike McDaniel, and a slew of other head coaches no longer being employed, 14 teams prepare for the NFL playoffs. The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks await their fates as the top seeds in their respective conferences, while the other 12 teams prepare to do battle on Wild Card weekend.
The AFC, in particular, seems wide open this season with Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow missing the postseason while relative newcomers like the New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars, and the (“Paper Tiger”) Broncos look to take the next steps in their development.
On the other side of the bracket, the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles may not hold the top seed, but should be considered the favorite until someone knocks them off. The NFC West carried an impressive mark this season, with three teams winning 12 or more games, which leaves the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams on the road to start the playoffs.
Needless to say, there are a lot of exciting Super Bowl matchups for fans and a lot of thrilling games to come on the run-up to the big game.
Now it is time to spin everything forward from the regular season. While we are a month or so away from finding out who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy this year, each round of the playoffs promises to be exciting. Attempting to predict the results of these games, when the best are playing the best, is difficult. Bettors on FanDuel, and FanDuel itself, are looking for every morsel of information to help make their predictions.
For the last few seasons, we have brought you prediction pieces using FTN’s DVOA. For example, in 2023, DVOA was perfect in predicting Wild Card weekend. Last year, DVOA gave the Super Bowl edge to the eventual champions.
DVOA is a metric that breaks down the quality of play compared to the league average while adjusting for the strength of the opponents being played. DVOA is one of a couple of catch-all analytics measures that help us understand the beautiful game of football better.
For the regular season, two of the top five DVOA teams didn’t even make the playoffs (Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts), but the two top seeds were among the top seven DVOA rankings, with the Seahawks first and the Broncos seventh.
With Wild Card weekend right around the corner, let us take a look at what it predicts for the upcoming weekend of the NFL playoffs:
Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers
- Overall DVOA: Los Angeles 2nd vs Carolina 25th
- Offensive DVOA: Los Angeles 10th vs Carolina 25th
- Defensive DVOA: Los Angeles 1st vs Carolina 22nd
Edge: Rams – The data and the current betting line (Rams -10.5) say that the playoffs should start with a blowout win for the visitors.
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
- Overall DVOA: Green Bay 11th vs Chicago 16th
- Offensive DVOA: Green Bay 6th vs Chicago 16th
- Defensive DVOA: Green Bay 19th vs Chicago 16th
Edge: Packers – One of the things that analytics data is unable to sort out is when division opponents meet in the playoffs, a third matchup of the year. Green Bay may have the edge overall and on offense, but the Bears have Caleb Williams at quarterback, Ben Johnson designing plays, and a slightly better defense.
Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars
- Overall DVOA: Buffalo 8th vs Jacksonville 6th
- Offensive DVOA: Buffalo 4th vs Jacksonville 14th
- Defensive DVOA: Buffalo 20th vs Jacksonville 6th
Edge: Jaguars – One team is carried by their offense, the other by their defense, in one of the most exciting matchups of Wild Card weekend. QB Josh Allen does not have a familiar postseason foe to deal with, but QB Trevor Lawrence has taken a huge step forward this season.
San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Overall DVOA: San Francisco 10th vs Philadelphia 13th
- Offensive DVOA: San Francisco 2nd vs Philadelphia 17th
- Defensive DVOA: San Francisco 27th vs Philadelphia 7th
Edge: Niners – FTN’s DVOA has no way of adjusting for major injuries, like the one lingering for Trent Williams, but San Fran versus Philly is another matchup of strength vs weakness on both sides of the ball, which could lead to a wild back-and-forth game.
Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots
- Overall DVOA: Los Angeles 17th vs New England 9th
- Offensive DVOA: Los Angeles 21st vs New England 3rd
- Defensive DVOA: Los Angeles 10th vs New England 23rd
Edge: Patriots – Newcomers, New England has a pretty strong overall advantage according to the data, but is only a 3.5 home favorite against the Chargers. An interesting coaching matchup between former players, can QB Drake Maye solidify his resume after a great second season, or will QB Justin Herbert get the playoff monkey off his back?
Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- Overall DVOA: Houston 4th vs Pittsburgh 12th
- Offensive DVOA: Houston 19th vs Pittsburgh 16th
- Defensive DVOA: Houston 2nd vs Pittsburgh 11th
Edge: Texans – Fans who have not watched Houston much this year might be surprised at just how high they are ranked overall in FTN’s DVOA, but that is a testament to their relentless defense. Mike Tomlin and QB Aaron Rodgers have the experience advantage and are playing at home, but their regular season produced middling results, again, for a Steelers franchise that has a long history of much higher forms of success.
DVOA provides another piece of information as you make betting decisions, discuss the playoffs with your coworkers, or while making daily fantasy decisions. We are excited to see the games played on the field and see whether or not FTN’s DVOA was able to once again perfectly predict the Wild Card round.